Canadian Council on Social Development 441 MacLaren Street 4th/e Floor/Étage Ottawa, ON K2P 2H3

Conseil canadien de développement social Tel: (613) 236-8977 Fax: (613) 236-2750 E-mail: council@ccsd.ca Internet: www.ccsd.ca

  

Introduction

There is no question that the context and environment in which public education operates is in a period of significant change. Public expectations are shifting as labour markets restructure and the role and scope of governments are challenged. These changes give rise to many questions about

• the central purpose of public education;
• the function and content of a comprehensive curriculum;
• the role of teachers and the status of the teaching profession;
• changing institutional frameworks and governance structures;
• the role of the general public in this process of change.

This discussion paper identifies some of the key challenges that will influence the course of public education over the next 20 years. The first section of the paper outlines the current trends and their implications for public education. The next section summarizes the current debate about education and the possible directions it could take as a result of societal trends. In the conclusion, potential areas for future investigation are presented.

Social and Economic Trends

Changes in the age composition of the population

Due to changing population demographics in Canada, there will be a significant shift in the proportion of school-aged children over the next 20 years: in 1996, school-aged children and youth (five to 19 years of age) made up 21% of the Canadian population; by 2020, it is estimated that this age group will comprise only 16% of the overall population.1

Source: Statistics Canada. Population projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: 1993-2016. Ottawa: Industry Canada, 1994.

By 2020, the largest population group will be baby boomers - by then, aged 55 to 65 - followed by the Echo generation who will be in their 30s. The baby boomers will begin reaching the retirement age of 65 by 2010. Over the subsequent two decades, as successive cohorts of this group join the ranks of those aged 65 and older, the size of this group will expand greatly.

Changes in the age structure of the population will affect every category of public spending to some degree. Three areas of public spending are particularly sensitive to demographic shifts: income security, health care and education.

And while not all the elderly will depend on publicly funded pensions and services, by the sheer weight of their numbers, they will put pressure on governments to spend money on income security and health care programs.2

This is not to suggest that self-interest exclusively determines spending priorities. However, previous patterns demonstrate that in the competition for public spending, population numbers and political clout do make a difference. Evidence also suggests that the influence of the baby boomers, now and in the future, will be based not only on their numbers, but also on their control of many positions of power throughout society.

Implications

• Seniors may attach a lower priority to using public resources for education than they did when they were younger and raising children.
• Spending on education as a percentage of GDP has been falling in recent years. The declining proportion of the school-aged population will ensure that this trend continues.3
• The importance accorded to education will decline as the baby-boom generation shifts its focus to other social issues, such as health care and income security.4

Ethno-racial Mix

Over the next 20 years, an increasing proportion of children in schools will be immigrants and members of visible minority groups. Nearly 200,000 immigrants enter Canada annually, almost 45,000 of whom are school-aged children who enrol in Canadian elementary and secondary schools. While the overall number of immigrant children as a proportion of the total population is small, these children exert a considerable impact on schools, particularly in large urban centres.

It is important to note that over the last several years there has been a shift in the countries of origin of immigrants to Canada, from Northern European countries to Southeast Asian and African countries. As a result, approximately two-thirds of all school-aged immigrant children arrive speaking neither official language, which places special demands on the school systems.

Figure 2: Education program level and race

Source: Toronto Board of Education. The 1991 Every Secondary Student Survey, Part II: Detailed Profiles of Toronto's Secondary School Students. Toronto: Research Services, 1993.

After acclimatizing to Canada, immigrant children tend to do quite well: their educational outcomes are comparable to those of the rest of the population. The exception is among Afro-Canadian children who experience lower rates of integration into the educational system and have lower levels of educational attainment.5

Aboriginal children also experience lower levels of educational attainment compared to the rest of the child and youth population in Canada, although this trend is improving. In 1996-97, for example, 71% of Aboriginal students remained in school up to Grade 12, compared to only 37% in 1987-88.

Figure 3: Enrolment of on-reserve Registered Indian population in kindergarten, elementary and secondary schools

Source: Indian and Northern Affairs Canada. Basic Departmental Data 1997. Ottawa: Industry Canada, 1998.

The post-secondary enrolment rate for the Registered Indian population aged 17 to 34 increased from 6% in 1993-94 to 6.9% in 1995-96. Over the same period, the rate for non-Aboriginal Canadians aged 17 to 34 increased from 10.1 to 11%.6 Because the proportion of children within the Aboriginal population is significantly higher than the proportion of children among the Canadian population as a whole, the educational situation of this group is critical.

Implications

• The growing numbers of school-aged children from immigrant and visible minority groups will continue to put pressures on the educational system for such programs as English as a Second Language (ESL) and for course materials and curricula that reflect the diversity of their beliefs and backgrounds.
• The growing diversity of the Canadian population is likely to increase pressures for specialized or ethno-specific institutions that are operated according to the values and beliefs of particular groups. These pressures will further complicate the existing tensions between advocates of integration and those who want to validate different cultural realities through the educational system.
• Lower educational results among particular groups perpetuate their social exclusion and lower economic outcomes, raising serious questions about how the educational system can be changed to serve the needs of these students.

Family Structure

Children live in very different families today compared to families in the past. At the height of the baby boom in 1960, the fertility rate was 3.9 children per woman; by 1996, it had declined to an almost historic low of 1.6. As a result, families in Canada are getting smaller. The average family size in 1971 was 3.7, but by 1998, it had dropped to 3.0.7

The National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) found that 46% of children under age 12 lived with only one brother or sister. As a result, children are learning more of their socialization skills from other children in the neighbourhood or in the school and less from their siblings, as was the case in the past. (A notable variation from this pattern is among the Aboriginal population, where the birth rate is double that of the Canadian rate: 27 births per 1,000 compared to 13 per 1,000 in the general population.)

Figure 4: Total fertility rate (projected), Canada, 2001 to 2016

Source: Statistics Canada. Population projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: 1993-2016. Ottawa: Industry Canada, 1994.

Low scenario: decline in the TFR combined with a high variant for the mean age of fertility which will increase from 27.9 years of age in 1993 to 28.5 years of age by 2016.
Medium scenario: TFR will remain constant at 1.70 births/woman. The mean age of fertility is assumed to change slightly, from 27.9 years of age in 1993 to 28 years of age by 2016.
High scenario: TFR will rise from 1.70 births per woman in 1993 to 1.90 births by 2016. Assumes a decreasing mean age of fertility from 27.9 years of age in 1993 to 27.5 years of age by 2016.

Divorce rates have risen as dramatically in Canada as they have in all industrialized countries, creating major changes for children in the family. As well, more children are being born outside of marriage. The most striking example is in Quebec, where 43% of children are born to common-law couples and 51% to married couples. Thus, more children than ever before are likely to experience family changes, and often at a younger age.8

Figure 5: Per cent of families by type, Canada and Quebec, 1996

Note: Includes families in private households. Married couples and common-law couples are considered families whether or not they have never-married children living with them.
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, 1998. Ottawa: Industry Canada, 1999.

One result of these new patterns of family formation and dissolution is that a greater percentage of children in the school system in 2020 will come from lone-parent families and from families that are experiencing transitions. According to the latest Census, nearly 1.8 million children lived in lone-parent families in 1996.

Research has shown that children growing up in lone-parent families have a greater likelihood of being disadvantaged throughout their lives - largely as a result of greater economic and emotional stresses - compared to children in two-parent families. In terms of their health, behaviour, academic achievements and relationships, children in lone-parent families have a greater likelihood of negative outcomes than do children in the general population.9

Regardless of the family structure, most parents will continue to work outside of the home, juggling the dual responsibilities of paid employment and family care. These demands have become acute in a climate of economic uncertainty, government cutbacks, and the aging of the population. The resulting time crunch will continue to be a reality for most families in 2020, affecting the well-being of individuals within the family and the family as a whole.

Implications

• Growing time pressures on families, especially among lone-parent families, will have ramifications for the educational system. As parents have less time available at home, they will look to the schools to play a greater role in supervising students and providing them with guidance and discipline.
• Job pressures on parents will continue to highlight the need for early childhood education and the establishment of before- and after-school programs within the public education system. Evidence suggests that regardless of socio-economic status, children who participate in quality child care perform significantly better than children who do not participate, and they are better prepared for elementary and secondary education.10 This is especially true for children in low-income families.
• The time crunch will also continue to limit parents' abilities to be involved in their children's education. This is particularly true in cases where the time limitations are exacerbated by other barriers, such as a lack of income or an inability to speak the official language.
    
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